Missed Opportunities: Using Access to Assess Alternative Historical Urban Rail Networks
Recently published:
MILLS, S., LEVINSON, D. (2026) Missed Opportunities: Using Access to Assess Alternative Historical Urban Rail Networks. Case Studies on Transport Policy [doi]
In this paper, we use Sydney as a case study to reassess past and proposed rail lines through an accessibility-based appraisal framework. We estimate changes in job accessibility under alternative network configurations and monetise those changes using land-value uplift implied by previously estimated Sydney hedonic models. We treat this land-value uplift measure as a partial indicator of capitalised accessibility benefits, rather than a full substitute for conventional cost-benefit analysis. We review Bradfield’s 1916 heavy-rail proposal, the 1974 Sydney Area Transportation Study (SATS), the 2001 Long Term Strategy for Rail, and Sydney Metro 2056 proposals, and we also examine two revised heavy-rail or metro routes and several light-rail options. Costs are benchmarked from recent Sydney and international projects, and benefit/cost ratios are reported under multiple discount rates. The results identify several historical and revised alignments that perform well under this access-based land-value metric, while also showing the importance of cost assumptions and the interpretation of land-value uplift in policy appraisal.
