Adventures in Forecasting Intercity Rail: NLX edition

Projections around the proposed intercity railway "Northern Lights Express (NLX)" line from Duluth to Twin Cities are presented below. The first two columns of data are from the Statewide Rail plan, funded by MnDOT, prepared by Cambridge Systematics (lead). The last column is from the recent draft Environmental Assessment by USDOT, MnDOT and WisDOT

State Railway PlanEnvironmental Assessment BaseBest Scenario Evaluated: High speed, 8 RTHigh speed, 8 RT PhaseIIRoute 9 Capital Cost $878,500,000 $676,600,000 $820,000,000 Operating and Maintenance Cost (Annual) $45,700,000 $35,900,000 Revenue $9,600,000 $12,000,000 $27,660,000 Farebox Recovery21%34% Capital Cost per Mile $5,800,000 $4,500,000 Capital Cost per Rider (2030) $2,042 $1,049 $732.14 Operating Subsidy per Rider $83.82 $36.96 Ridership 2020 938,000 Ridership 2030 430,000 645,000 1,120,000 Ridership 2040 1,302,000

Feb-10Minnesota Comprehensive Statewide Freight and Passenger Rail Plan http://www.dot.state.mn.us/planning/railplan/finalreport/MNRailPlanFinalReportFeb2010.pdf Apr-13Northern Lights Express High Speed Passenger Rail Project from Minneapolis to Duluth, Minnesota http://www.dot.state.mn.us/nlx/documents/nlx-evironmental-assessment.pdf